Back in March, I tried to find as many Linux-based UMPCs as I could. At the time, I found 18, which was expanded to 20 with the help of commenters. After many more Linux-based UMPC releases, I decided to see how many more I could find. The first 20 on the list below are from the previous list.
Wow! 32 32+ Linux-based UMPCs! Here is my question: many people, including myself, consider the Eee PC to be the product that caused so many new UMPCs to appear. Sort of like a spark for the UMPC business, but is that true? How may of these UMPCs would exist if the Eee PC had never appeared. My guess is not many.
I can’t say I own an Eee PC, an HP MiniNote, or any UMPC, but all I need to do is read what people say about them and use some common sense to figure out that a full desktop OS is not, as a general rule, a good option for a tiny screen. Unfortunately, not everyone seems to agree.
The VAR Guy is reporting that SuSe Linux Enterprise will be shipped on the MSI Wind, a yet another yet-to-be-released UMPC. I have no problem with Novell, well, ignoring the whole Microsoft patent deal thing, but I just don’t think shipping a full desktop OS on a UMPC is a smart idea, especially when you could just use Ubuntu Netbook Remix or Linpus Linux Lite?
I can sort of understand on a bussiness-y UMPC like the MiniNote, but come on, think about your customers and what software they need. Next time, MSI, choose more UMPC-apropriate software.
With a device like a UMPC, it is difficult to know what interface to put on it. On one hand, it is really mostly meant for just surfing the internet so a simple interface would seem like a good move. On the other hand, it is also basically just a small laptop, so why not put a standard interface on it? A Washington Post article, however, argues that both of these options are bad options. I agree with this, but if a standard interface is bad and a simple interface is bad, what is good? The answer: Ubuntu Netbook Remix.
The reason Ubuntu’s Netbook Remix is a better option that most is because it blends simplicity with the full Ubuntu. Rather than being stripped down, limited, and un-extendable, Ubuntu Netbook Remix has almost the full Ubuntu underneath it, but has a simple enough interface on top of that. Because of this, when Ubuntu’s Netbook Remix comes out later this year, we may see it really take off and potentially propel non-Eee PC UMPCs to success. Based on this and all the other news that keeps flowing in about Ubuntu Netbook Remix, it looks like the end of this year could be an exciting time for Linux and UMPCs.
Apple and Microsoft are both in a situation where they are essentially forced, due to past mistakes or a lack of foresight, to spend a significant amount of time making behind-the-scenes changes. In this time, Linux could potentially get a real leg up on other OSs.
First, what happened with Microsoft and Apple? In Microsoft’s case, the main mistake was making Vista so resource intensive. When the Eee PC suddenly appeared as a major threat to Windows, Microsoft was not prepared. As a result, Microsoft has had to repeatedly extend the life of Windows XP, a product they would obviously rather retire. This mistake, making Vista so resource intensive, will presumably force them to make major changes in Windows 7 to bring down the resource requirements.
On Apple’s side, OS X 10.6 (Snow Leopard) has just been announced. Rather than introducing new features, though, Apple has decided to essentially do a maintenance release. I was very surprised by this decision, but apparently that is the plan.
So what will Linux be doing well Apple and Microsoft are essentially standing still? The short answer, I hope, is: running. There are two reasons why Linux will not have to take time off for a “maintenence release.” First, Linux has not made mistakes such as dramatically increasing resource requierments. Second, even if some people (even an entire distribution) decide to work on only behind-the-scenes stuff, new features will continue to flow in from projects that are moving ahead. No one project or person can stop Linux innovation. Because of this, I am hopeful that Linux will be able to push ahead of Microsoft and Apple as they stand there correcting past mistakes. Anyone thinking of the tortoise and the hare?
When Ubuntu’s Netbook Remix was first announced, Ars Technica mentioned that “No major OEMs have revealed plans to use it yet and Canonical is still actively looking for new partners in the hardware space.” This brought up the potential concern of what if no one really adopts Ubuntu Netbook Remix?
Of course, we can be quite confident that Canonical will figure something out, but for those of you who have been really hoping that the Ubuntu Netbook Remix will be widely adopted, it looks like you can stop holding your breath.
In a blog post today, Mark Shuttleworth said that:
The Canonical OEM team has been approached by a number of OEM’s who want to sell netbooks (small, low-cost laptops with an emphasis on the web) based on Ubuntu.
It is great to see cofirmation that Ubuntu Netbook Remix will almost certainly be adopted and I can’t wait to see what happens when it ships on the first devices.
From the perspective of a Linux user and watcher (and I guess in my case writer, too) of the Linux news, it certainly seems like the Eee PC should be increasing Linux’s number of users, but what do the real numbers show?
Unfortunately, it is very hard to know for sure how many people are using any particular operating system, since there is no way to measure OS usage. Luckily, there is some data available from Net Applications. Net Applications uses the information browsers give to various websites to get an approximate idea of OS market share. Here is what the Net Applications data tells us:
Interestingly, the Eee PC appeared around the beginning of November of 2007, or about 1 month after Linux’s market share started going up by .3-.4% per month.
If the timing of the Eee PC’s arrival had been slightly different (one to two months earlier), it would look like the Eee PC made a huge difference, but since the larger increase started before the Eee PC arrived, it does not appear to be possible to show a connection between the Eee PC (and other Linux-based UMPCs) and Linux’s market share.
This is what I would have predicted, though, if I had been forced to guess. The reason is that Eee PCs can only make up a tiny part of all the computers in the world. Thus, the only reasonable way to expect them to increase Linux’s market share is if they cause people who have good experiences with them or hear about other people having good experiences with them to want to try out Linux on their main computer(s). There are two problems with this, though. First, it takes time for people to get around to downloading Linux and time for them to tell their friends (though it would seem like 6 months would be enough time.) And second, people need to know they are using Linux on their UMPC before they can be inspired to try out Linux on their main PC. With most of the current UMPCs, there is no real way to tell they run Linux (assuming they do.)
Will this improve in the future? Yes, it probably will. For one thing, these UMPCs are going to get more press and, through that press, more and more people will learn that they are actually using Linux already on their UMPC. Perhaps more importantly, though, I am hopeful that we will see more UMPC-specific distros or distro-variants that brand themselves so that it is easy to tell you are using Linux. I am particularly watching Ubuntu’s Netbook Remix, hoping that it will be used as an opportunity to promote Ubuntu.
Even if UMPCs are not yet directly affecting Linux’s market share, they are certainly helping Linux get a good reputation with more people and there is hope that, in the future, UMPCs running Linux will contribute to Linux’s market share noticeably.
Acer appears to be joining the ever-growing list of companies that are backing Linux, a list that currently includes Asus, Dell, HP, and others. Acer has even gone beyond many of the companies on the list by not only announcing a computer of theirs that will run Linux, in Acer’s case the Aspire One UMPC, but also saying “Microsoft has a lot of power and it is going to be difficult, but we will be working hard to develop the Linux market,” according to CNet.
OK, so it is great to see Acer’s support for Linux, but what does that quote, which is from Acer’s Vice President of Marketing, mean? Although it is hard to be sure it is more than just press, I suspect that it means two things:
Whatever this quote may mean exactly, it is good to see that Linux has another backer. I just wish the name Acer didn’t sound so much Asus – I have trouble keeping them straight!
Many Linux users have looked on happily as the Eee PC has taken off, bringing Linux to so many more people. Unfortunately, unless you learn some other way, there is no way to know that you are using Linux on the Eee PC. Thus, very few Eee PC purchases will result in someone trying Linux on their primary computer, unless they know from some other source that the Eee PC runs Linux. The same issue is true of most other Linux-based UMPC OSs. If Ubuntu’s “Netbook Remix” takes off, though, this problem looks like it may go away.
What makes Ubuntu’s Netbook Remix different is that it appears, from the Ars Technica screenshots, to be clearly, though not annoyingly, Ubuntu branded. When people see the branding and have a good experience with their UMPC, they may choose to go try out Ubuntu on their primary computer. Because of this, Ubuntu’s Netbook Remix could bring Ubuntu to many people who purchase UMPCs who have possibly never heard of Linux.
Unfortunately, hardware makers are not exactly jumping to be the first to use the new Netbook Remix, but hopefully by the end of this year, when Canonical says the Netbook Remix will first be shipped, some hardware makers will jump on board and use it on their devices. And if the Netbook Remix is heavily adopted, we may begin to see a significant boost in the number of people trying Linux and Ubuntu out because of their UMPC expierience.
If you have been following the Linux news as I am sure most of you have been, you probably will have noticed two trends: Linux is taking over mobile devices such as UMPCs and Linux is becoming increasingly well positioned, though Google Android and LiMo, to take over the phone market.
If you have been paying any attention to the Windows news, as I am sure fewer of you have been, you may have seen Microsoft’s announcement a little while ago about Live Mesh. If you don’t know what Live Mesh is, you’re just like the rest of us. I am, quite frankly, not sure if anyone really gets what it is supposed to be. OK, I am sort of joking about no one knowing what Live Mesh is. Part of what makes it so confusing is that Live Mesh is in a very early “tech preview.” Basically, as best I can understand it, Live Mesh is a kind of synchronization tool. The idea appears to be to keep all the devices people use in sync with each other so that you have your files and stuff wherever you go. I am sure people who understand it better would disagree with that level of simplification, but that is how I understand it right now.
So what do these two apparently unrelated pieces of news have to do with each other? Lots. Live Mesh attempts to connect your computer with your phone with all your other devices, but what if your phone and your devices all run Linux, a situation that seems entirely possible by the time Live Mesh really comes out.
This pushes Microsoft into one of two possibilities. Embrace other operating systems or fight them. It is difficult to predict what Microsoft will do if a situation like this comes up. Personally, I believe that choosing to fight would be a mistake, but Microsoft has made similar mistakes before and may do so again.
Microsoft has apparently given details of a new deal to PC makers that allows them to get discounted Windows XP licenses for use on UMPCs, according to Computer World UK. This already appeared to be the case due to pricing on the Eee PC, however it had not been confirmed. There seem to be two parts to this story. First, Microsoft is selling Windows for less on UMPCS. Second, some people suspect that the deal is supposed to prevent UMPCs from competing with normal PCs.
The first part is relatively simple. Microsoft is giving essentially the same product away at difference prices, depending what type of device it will go on. Although I am not in any way a lawyer, I suspect that this is legal, since Microsoft can just change one little feature and then it is a different product. Just because it is probably legal, does not, however, mean I think it is a fair practice. Another way of stating the second sentence of this paragraph is: Microsoft is making Windows less expensive in the markets where Linux is gaining market share. Because of this, I think this practice should be illegal and is certainly unfair.
The second part of the story is slightly more complicated, though not by much. The Computer World article brings up the point that Microsoft may be trying to limit UMPCs from invading the regular PC market by defining them with these specifications:
Although it is true that these specifications would limit a UMPC from competing with a regular PC, three things should be kept in mind.
For these three reasons, I don’t see anything wrong with the specifications Microsoft has set. I do, however, think that the whole idea of selling the same product at differenet prices is unfair. If you disagree, however, I am open to hearing your arguement. Go ahead and post it in the comments.