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Transitioning to Linux – OEM Bulk Install Style
Transitioning someone to Linux on an individual basis is one thing, but what happens when OEMs start installing Linux out of the box? No longer do you have one person helping another person transition to a new operating system, but rather thousands of people transitioning to Linux without individual help.
A recent CNet review of the HP Mini 1000 Mi (customized Ubuntu) concluded this:
“HP has added a Linux-based OS to its popular Mini 1000 Netbook’s Mi edition, dressed up with a glossy, sexy front-end, but many users will still want the flexibility and familiarity of Windows.”
Ignoring the flexibility part (when we start talking about Windows being more flexible than Linux, something is messed up), it is true that many users will still opt for the familiar option – and I don’t blame them. How can that be changed, though? The only real option would be to include Windows and Linux side by side (obviously not on today’s netbooks, but on regular notebooks and desktops). That sounds like a great idea, but why would an OEM bother with this? The main advantage of Linux to an OEM is the price tag: free.This is not the only advantage, though.
The OEM doesn’t care what OS their customers use in the short term, but in the longer term, OEMs should be trying to get their customers to switch away from Windows to any open-source or custom operating system.
The problem is that the Dell’s and HP’s of the world are dumb hardware makers. Hardware gets cheaper, margins get smaller, customer support gets worse, customers get mad, customers leave, prices have to drop, margins get smaller, and so on. It’s a downward spiral that they have to break to survive.
Pretty soon Apple may well be killing Dell, since they control both the hardware and the software, thus giving them greater ability to innovate, add value that keeps the margins higher, and, ultimately, survive.
OEMs do, in fact, have a vested interest in transitioning to software that they can control. Whether to make a proprietary OS from scratch or start from an open-source operating system is a choice they will have to make, but I think I can predict the outcome.
How Long Will Software Costs Be Able to Hide
As demonstrated by the current price for a Dell Inspiron Mini 9, netbook prices are falling very quickly and they started out cheap from the beginning. These price drops are largely driven by improvements in hardware that make the hardware components cheaper, rather than the software getting less expensive, though.
This trend poses a problem for Microsoft, since they rely on a small bit of profit from everyone who buys a computer. As it stands, this chuck of the price is almost invisible next to the overall price, but as hardware gets cheaper that will not always be the case. What happens when the cost of Windows becomes half the price of the computer? People will begin to notice that price and OEMs will look for a way to get rid of it. How do you get rid of that cost? Linux.
For most people right now, the cost of Windows has little effect on the price of their machine, since Microsoft heavily disounts it. Microsoft can’t just keep discounting more and more, though. Eventually the “Microsoft tax” will be a big part of everyone’s next computer purchase. This will likely force manufacturers into searching for a cheaper solution, leading them to Linux.
Linux On One HP Desktop: A Small Step, But Still A Step
Today HP has announced they will ship Linux on their HP Compaq DC5850. If you’re like me, your first reaction as soon as you saw it was a small business PC was “yawn.” One desktop and not even a consumer one? Big deal, right?
Well, it might not be. It seems that HP is toying with Linux more and more. FIrst on their Mini(Note) and now on this desktop.The big question is, will HP start selling more computers with Linux?
It is not implausible that HP would begin to sell Linux on more of their computers at all. After all, Dell is already doing it. Everything kind of makes sense. First HP offers SLED and then (soon) Ubuntu on their Mini(Note) consumer netbook. Now, they are trying SLED again, this time on a business desktop. All of this would fit with trying to figure out if offering Linux on a larger array of computers would make sense. Still , nothing is certain and it is difficult to predict what will or will not happen and when.
If indeed HP is considering a wider roll out of Linux, that would be excellent news. That would mean that the number one and two computer makers would both be offering Linux. After that, it seems likely that the rest would follow shortly.
Selling Linux on one computer model might be a tiny step, but it is a step that could lead to another and another. Do you think this a sign that HP will be selling more computers with Linux soon or is that too far fetched?
In many ways, Microsoft has little to worry about, at least not for now. Sure, they are losing market share steadily, but for their lead to be toppled it would take years and years, or would it?
Microsoft’s agreements with major OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Dell and HP are highly confidential (which is a warning sign in itself), but by most accounts, the agreements give Microsoft a lot of power over these OEMs. This is part of what gives Microsoft so much power. As long as OEMs continue to sell Windows exclusively, which Microsoft essentially ensures with their agreements, they have a large part of the market all to themselves. These strangle-hold agreements may also be a weakness, though.
From the information we have, it appears that Microsoft controls OEMs not by making them love Microsoft, but by threatening them with increased licensing costs, something that could quickly kill any OEM. What this means is that most OEMs probably wish Microsoft has less of a monopoly. In fact, both Dell, by selling Ubuntu on some notebooks, and HP, with their rumored custom version of Linux, have indicated this.
It appears that Dell, HP, and others probably have two options: restrict their Linux stuff to remote areas of their businesses, or declare a revolution by offering Linux on all their computers. I suspect that any single OEM that tried this would get killed, but if several major OEMs did it together?
Let’s look at the pros and cons from the perspective of OEMs:
- PRO: Good chance of toppling Microsoft’s power, freeing them of restrictive licensing deals.
- PRO: Reduce costs by cutting out Windows licensing fees all together.
- CON: Potential technical problems and initial negative customer response.
- CON: Some possibility of getting absolutely crushed. In this case, the company in question could probably recover, but not without losses.
While we do not know exactly how bad the license with Microsoft is, it seems unlikey that any major company would take the risks involved. If I were Microsoft, I would, however, be somewhat concerned. If OEMs did “revolt,” Microsoft would be in deep trouble. Arguably, despite the low probability, this is Microsoft’s most immediate threat. Could it ever happen? Would it work?