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Posts in instant on
When Will The Instant-On Standard Emerge?
Since Splashtop first arrived, instant-on operating systems have been a big deal. The idea is that when you don’t want to deal with waiting for your computer to boot, you can simply enter the quick boot mode and be up and running in a few seconds with a basic Linux desktop. At this point though, every manufacturer that has joined in has created or licensed their own software. This is a natural thing to happen in happen in the beginning, but I expect that it will soon change.
As these technologies are first developed, it makes sense that each one is a little different from the others. After all, the software is usually dependent on specific hardware. Now that this instant-on technology has begun to mature and it is becoming a more common feature, the natural tendency should be towards a standard piece of software. This standard instant-on environment would, of course, have to support different hardware, but there is no reason that couldn’t happen.
With a standard instant-on OS, users would also not have to relearn it every time they get a new computer.
Similar to the way there were a large number of competeing operating systems early on and now there are only a few, I suspect that we will soon begin to see one vendor’s instant-on software spread and become the universal choice. Perhaps it will be Splashtop or perhaps it will be someone else, but it will almost certainly be someone.
Linux To Outship Windows? Will It Happen?
Jim Zemlin, the executive director of the Linux Foundation, came out and made a bold prediction that Linux would outship Windows in 2009, as discussed in Desktop Linux and on Zemlin’s blog. Obviously, this is not a safe claim, but it could be more realistic than you might expect.
The argument made is that instant-on OSs, which are almost always Linux-based, will be installed on almost all computers, thus canceling out the Windows OS shipping on the computer. Once all the WIndows installs are canceled out, the Linux netbooks will then push Linux over the top, in terms of most copies shipped.
The conclusion makes a lot more sense after reading the details of the argument, but I am still not completely convinced.
My biggest problem with the conclusion is that I doubt instant-on will be mainstream until at least late 2009, if it catches on. In other words, I doubt that, even if instant-on OSs become highly popular, they will be included in the majority of computers until late 2009 at best. Right now, instant-on OSs are included on some notebook lines and a very few desktops. That is a long way from being ubiquitous, or even common.
Even if the theory came true, what would it mean? Do people really use instant-on OSs as much as they use their main OS? Even if they do, do they have any idea that they are using Linux?
Zemlin’s conclusion is not impossible, nor is it likely, still, even if users were unable to identify it as Linux, it would be a major step forward, since it would indicate that manufacturers believed in Linux, at least for small tasks.
Instant On and Linux
More and more companies are starting to sell computers with some sort of “instant on” Linux. It started with Asus, and now HP and Dell have jumped on, too. While these sorts of things at currently being marketed as a small convenience feature, it seems to me that they are the future – and, thus, a big potential for Linux.
As it stands now, a few people will begin to get these instant on Linux distros. Of these people, some will ignore it, but others will start to use it some amount of the time. As the instant on environments get more advanced and more widespread, a greater precentage of the people who get them will start to use them, and for a greater amount of time. Logically, if you extend this trend, pretty much everyone is using an instant on environment for almost everything they do. Unfortunately, with the current situation, this may not happen.
In order for instant on environments to meet the needs of more people for more of what they do, the instant on environments have to get more flexible. At first, this may just mean adding more applications, something that will almost certainly happen in time. There gets to a point, though, where even more flexibility is needed. This is where the problem is.
Instant on environments are currently viewed as a small convienence feature – not a full-time OS. This may mean that the current players will be slow to see the need for the ability to install new applications, or interact with the rest of the hardware, and so on. For this reason, it may be nessessary for another software maker to come in and take it to the next level. This could be an independent company, a Linux distro (such as Ubuntu), or really anything, but if instant on is going to evolve into a full-time OS, it needs someone who has a vested interest in making that happen, not just getting the same few features on lots of computers.