Has the Eee PC Had An Effect on Linux Market Share?
From the perspective of a Linux user and watcher (and I guess in my case writer, too) of the Linux news, it certainly seems like the Eee PC should be increasing Linux’s number of users, but what do the real numbers show?
Unfortunately, it is very hard to know for sure how many people are using any particular operating system, since there is no way to measure OS usage. Luckily, there is some data available from Net Applications. Net Applications uses the information browsers give to various websites to get an approximate idea of OS market share. Here is what the Net Applications data tells us:
- From March of 2007 to September of 2007 Linux gained about .15% per month
- From September of 2007 to May of 2008 Linux gained about .3-.4% per month, with the exception of January to March where Linux lost .3%
Interestingly, the Eee PC appeared around the beginning of November of 2007, or about 1 month after Linux’s market share started going up by .3-.4% per month.
If the timing of the Eee PC’s arrival had been slightly different (one to two months earlier), it would look like the Eee PC made a huge difference, but since the larger increase started before the Eee PC arrived, it does not appear to be possible to show a connection between the Eee PC (and other Linux-based UMPCs) and Linux’s market share.
This is what I would have predicted, though, if I had been forced to guess. The reason is that Eee PCs can only make up a tiny part of all the computers in the world. Thus, the only reasonable way to expect them to increase Linux’s market share is if they cause people who have good experiences with them or hear about other people having good experiences with them to want to try out Linux on their main computer(s). There are two problems with this, though. First, it takes time for people to get around to downloading Linux and time for them to tell their friends (though it would seem like 6 months would be enough time.) And second, people need to know they are using Linux on their UMPC before they can be inspired to try out Linux on their main PC. With most of the current UMPCs, there is no real way to tell they run Linux (assuming they do.)
Will this improve in the future? Yes, it probably will. For one thing, these UMPCs are going to get more press and, through that press, more and more people will learn that they are actually using Linux already on their UMPC. Perhaps more importantly, though, I am hopeful that we will see more UMPC-specific distros or distro-variants that brand themselves so that it is easy to tell you are using Linux. I am particularly watching Ubuntu’s Netbook Remix, hoping that it will be used as an opportunity to promote Ubuntu.
Even if UMPCs are not yet directly affecting Linux’s market share, they are certainly helping Linux get a good reputation with more people and there is hope that, in the future, UMPCs running Linux will contribute to Linux’s market share noticeably.
June 9th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Asus says they will sell 5 million EEE this year, of those 2 million will be Linux.
But how do you calculate Brazil’s tech push?
30,000 computer labs built by the end of the year, for a total of 50,000 by the end of 2009 to serve 50 million students with Linux and KDE.
Those kids wont have their own computers but how can you brush off their usage of Linux?
Last year we were so happy taht Dell was taking comments.
Today, we have cheap laptops coming out every day.
But the one thing you missed (as did all of mainstream media) is the Asus embedded Linux deal.
EVERY Asus motheboard and some laptop series will have Splashtop technology which is means that millions of mobos every month will come with embedded Linux.
How is THIS not big news?
Even if you are not a FLOSS fan, slow boot up times have been with us since the PC revolution started.
I know quite a few people who could live their whole lives with just Firefox, Skype, IM an photoviewer and never boot into their main OS.
As a person who has built every one of his desktops, I think the instant on technology is a useful one.
As a Gnu-Linuxista, the idea of millions of motherboards coming out every month is simply astounding.
I ask once again: How is this not a bigger story?
June 10th, 2008 at 1:24 am
Of course, some enterprising soul might release a version of Linux for the desktop which looks pretty much like the eeepc OS - large friendly buttons under tabs, and none of the other distractions. If so, people used to the eeePC might very well install the same thing on their desktop (or more likely, buy a desktop which looks the same as the eeePC.)
I think the gOS machines did this, but it would need to be a close match. I see Asus are looking at all-in-one monitors with an inbuilt PC and OS, which might be the lever Linux was looking for.
June 10th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Rob - I have certainly not missed the Splashtop story. I have been watching Splashtop since it was first integrated onto one high-end Asus motherboard and I was certainly glad to see that it was going to appear on more motherboards. I am not as convinced, though, that everyone will start using Splashtop instead of Windows. I certainly hope you are right, though.
June 11th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
i would love an option in splashtop, so that it suggests, auto downloads and installs a full distro in case you don’t have a main OS installed yet.
it would be awesome if the splashtop guys made splashOS (the full version)
or suggest a good userfriendly distro like ubuntu.
i think I’ll be suggesting this to them
July 8th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
According to this http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=8 website Linux is only %0.80 of the OS market. There’s no data on the info.
According to this http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Linux-and-Open-Source/Linux-Losing-Market-Share-to-Windows-Server/ Linux isn’t doing well in the server arena.
I would like to see Linux take off but it’s not happening. I think devices like the BlackBerry are having a huge impact. For a company to get push email to the BlackBerry you need an Exchange server. That cuts Linux out of the picture in a lot of places.
If Linux is going to take off it needs to work well in business and gaming. We can play a few games but we can’t get push email to the BlackBerry. Not yet anyway.
Unless Linux can break into these markets or find a new niche market it will be stuck on the sidelines. That’s my opinion any way.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Why do we believe “marketshare by net apps” as a source? Their sampling design is not very clear, and certainly not cleary unbiased or representative. Their sample is large, but that alone may not be sufficient.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Damien,
You can’t seriously believe these numbers.
1) Linux is the single largest installed base of servers.
2) The statistics on w3c indicate around a 2% web user base, but is there anyway to know these numbers are even close?
3) What about all those PCs which run Linux but don’t have internet, or Linux machines hidden behind firewalls, filtering systems and gateways?
4) Linux doesn’t have a billion dollar advertising campaign, an installed base in the hundreds of millions from previous versions, global name recognition or retail outlets. However even if your linked stats are right Linux desktops have around 7.2 million installed PCs and are growing at a rate of about 300,000 a month. That’s an impressive number all by itself. (assuming a Windows base of 300 million PCs)
5) Many surveys done on the internet and by magazines are paid for by Microsoft or Microsoft supporters, and thus any statistic must be analyzed for accuracy and prejudice.
6) Caveat emptor, be cautious believing anything you see hear or read.