Dell May Have Boosted Linux’s Share of OS Usage
ComputerWorld reports that operating system usage on the net has shifted, primarily away from Windows XP and in favor of Windows Vista and Mac OS-X. The story also notes that Linux’s share in net usage has increased significantly, at least in percentage terms from its (very low) initial usage rate.
This made me curious about whether there is any evidence that Linux usage has increased as a result of Dell’s decision, at the end of May this year, to begin offering machines with Ubuntu operating systems. Not only did this put some new Dell Linux machines into the public’s hands, but Dell’s implied endorsement of Linux also directed public attention to Linux and probably gave Linux some additional legitimacy in the eyes of the broader public. Thus, directly and indirectly, Dell’s action might have boosted Linux’s usage share.
To check this hypothesis, I went to the Net Applications site that provides data on operating systems being used on the net. I checked Linux’s market share in November 2006, May 2007 (when Dell began offering Ubuntu), and November 2007. During this entire one year time span, the Linux share rose from 37/100 percent to 57/100 percent, or 20/100 of a percent. The increase during the first six months to May 2007 was 6/100 percent, while the increase in the second six months was 14/100 percent. So the market penetration of Linux appears to have accelerated after Dell began shipping Ubuntu machines, and Dell’s action may have been at least partly responsible for the acceleration.
While Linux’s share is still mighty small, that share has increased by 50 percent in the last year. If it continues to increase by 50 percent annually, it will have the whole market in (…hmmm…) a little less than 13 years.
December 4th, 2007 at 9:15 am
I think that in addition to Dell’s effort to blaze a trail, the fact that Walmart offers (or offered until sold out) Linux units has some effect on the increased attention to the alternative operating system. These two giants not only offer legitimacy, but offer it to the ‘average’ consumer instead of just the geek crowd.
December 4th, 2007 at 9:56 am
13 years?
Linus predicted Linux world domination for 2010….
Seriously:
In addition to your story, don’t forget devices such as the EEE from Asus.
This little machine is selling like hot cakes, at least in Germany.
(bestselling notebook at Amazon.de, first shipment sold out, see here http://vale.homelinux.net/wordpress/?p=211 )
To me, this machine much more seems to point to a breakthrough as a Windows license in this price regions really hurts the manufacturers and the buyers. If the EEE continues to sell so well, other devices will follow and people will become familiar with Linux which is not the command line beast that some people have in their memories.
December 4th, 2007 at 11:16 am
It’s amazing that Windows still has over 90% of the market, and Linux has less than one percent. With all the people posting in all the forums for all the distributions of Linux, you would think they had a bigger share of the market. But then again, 0.5% of the world is equal to millions of people…
December 4th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Bob H. - I agree. I was a little surprised when I realized that Linux still had less than 1% of the market. Still, those numbers are only desktop Linux numbers. When you factor in servers, the numbers get much better.
amd-linux and Len Cain - Very true. I think you are right that the Eee and gPC also help those numbers, but they were both released quite recently, so I don’t really know if they are having a big effect yet or not. I have written about the success of the Eee and the gPC a few times before.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
The market share of GNU/Linux on the desktop is closer to 6% than 1%. The NetApps data is biased towards that other OS. If you look at http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp which is biassed towards that other OS because it does have some windows-only server scripting parts, the numbers are like 3.4%. These numbers are both based on User-agent strings which can be faked, too. I used to run Opera on GNU/Linux as IE on that other OS so some sites would let me in . There are many sites that punish non-IE visitors.
Further, one needs to look at global distributions. GNU/Linux is really hot in Asia. How is that area represented in the quoted data? We do not know.
I base my number on survey data from IDC and the like and growth figures. GNU/Linux was quoted as being as prevalent as MacOS a few years ago and growing very rapidly. In places like China, growth in numbers of GNU/Linux desktops is reportedly growing 60% per annum thanks to government policy to ban sales of naked PCs, and a crackdown on illegal copies of that other OS.
see http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P2229
see http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P2438
While surveys and predictions are not very satisfying, I certainly have not seen any slowdown in adoption of GNU/Linux. XP has converted many to GNU/Linux just to escape forced upgrades and malware. Recently people have been brining Vista machines to me because they phone home and cut off service if they cannot. M$ has recently decided Vista SP1 will nag instead of cut off service, but it is too late for many. In my community the number of GNU/Linux desktops has gone from about 1% to about 50% in one year because the school went with GNU/Linux in the lab and students began using it at home. Next year this community will be about 90% GNU/Linux because the school is going to put 4 GNU/Linux PCs in every classroom and common area. Even the die-hards in offices are accepting GNU/Linux here because it works.
Do not rely on web stats. Take your own survey and make it unbiased. My town is small enough, I can ask for a show of hands in the gym to do my survey.
Three years ago I started to meet people who used GNU/Linux on the desktop in person. Last year, my wife’s pastor accepted GNU/Linux into his heart. Last year I set up a whole K-12 school using GNU/Linux. This year a whole town will move in that direction. There is no stopping the march of the penguin.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
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