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Is Windows 7 Really A Linux Killer?
A recent ComputerWorld article titled “Windows 7: The Linux Killer” has been getting a lot of attention. The article basically argues that Microsoft’s vulnerability to Linux comes entirely from netbooks and that Windows 7 is designed to and will take over the netbook market. On one point I agree, on one point I disagree, and on one point I think we just have to wait and see.
I agree that Windows 7 was probably designed at least partly with the goal of developing a modern version of Windows that can realistically run on netbooks. Without a doubt, there has been some serious focus on performance in Windows 7, most likely as a result of both complaints about Vista and the growing netbook market. It also appears that these efforts have paid off and Windows 7 will probably be much better on netbooks than Vista was.
Where I disagree with the article is in this statement:
The threat to Windows comes entirely from “netbooks”
If that was revised to “the immediate threat to Windows comes entirely from netbooks,” then I would agree. The thing is that standard desktop Linux is making a lot of progress, too. I could point to Dell’s Linux offerings, but I think the more significant progress is in overall user friendliness. For example, look at Wubi. You can now install Ubuntu without leaving Windows and uninstall it the same way. I could name almost countless examples of small things that make various Linux distributions more user friendly. Support for Windows file systems, clearly named menus, Add/Remove programs, continually improving hardware support, and so on. Whatever you can say about market share and whatever comparisons you want to make, Linux is improving at a rapid pace. This could be Microsoft’s greatest long term threat. A free operating system already very, very usable and quickly improving.
Finally, the article makes the following claim:
The high point for Linux netbook sales will be from now until the launch of Windows 7. After that will come the inevitable decline.
I don’t think it’s so clear cut. First of all, we have to look at costs. Windows costs money, Linux doesn’t. Argue all you want about the details of the training, support, and so on, but the fact remains that Windows has a per-license price and Linux doesn’t. (Unless Microsoft plays some really weird price games, which can always happen.) Second, Linux can be customized like crazy. This really means two things: First, it is almost guaranteed that it will be possible to make Linux faster, since you can strip away, modify, or replace every piece. Second, the OEM can modify the software they ship, as both Dell and HP have done. In fact, they can even take pretty much complete credit for it 
. The point is that, despite Windows 7 making huge improvements, there will still be many reasons to use Linux, so it is not at all clear that Windows 7 will suppress Linux on netbooks.
I can’t say I agree with everything, but I think the general idea of the article is right. Windows 7 is, at least partially, targeted at killing Linux, but I don’t think it will work.
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windows is still easiest out of box to use and updates relatively painless. Linux requires a bit more computer savy.
when linux becomes an off the shelf product just like windows, then it’ll kick a**.
personally it think the balkanization of OSes is what the future will bring; no one OS will dominate.
btw, before flaming me… I dual boot at home – Vista & OpenSuse.
TANSTAAFL
hope windows 7 would do much better than vist
Whatever M$ does to respond to GNU/Linux is almost irrelevant. GNU/Linux was shown to many millions of folks in 2008 who had not seen it before. Many liked it. Many OEMs found it worked for them. M$ cannot put the genie of empowerment by GNU/Linux back in the bottle. They can cut prices/improve performance/pay people to use that other OS but these moves will only have a temporary or small effect on the eventual market shifts in OS. M$ has a mature product in a mature market and the monopoly can no longer be sustained. All they can do is maximize the cost/benefit envelope for themselves. Many emerging markets, second or third OS users, youth, and women will find GNU/Linux suitable and M$ cannot stop that process. They can only slow it a little.
Do not be fooled by the NetApplications data. It is only a biased sample of web hits. We are certain of that because we know Apple’s share based on units sold which is published in the SEC filings. Apple is taking a huge share only in NetApplication’s universe. In the rest of the world, GNU/Linux is very hot and still growing rapidly.
the day windows is inmune to viruses, malware and becomes free, then it will b a linux killer and pigs will fly ^Q^
I have used Linux for about 6 years after which time there is an easy
to use replacement for Windows. Having said that, i can’t get end users
and IT techs alike to use much less try Linux. Bill Gates was right about
getting to market first. One inside the door, people don’t want change even
if it’s for the better. Even if it’s free.
The other problem: I gave a copy of Blender (open source) to a friend who
does 3D stuff. I asked later what he thought of it. He said he paid 400$ for his 3D application. I said, “so your going to use it”? He said “heck no, then
i would have to relearn this already hard software app”! So it all boils down to change.
I went on vacation with my wife who used to be a travel agent. I rented a
Garmin gps which she loathed for half the trip. “i don’t need that. I know how to use a phone book”etc. By the end of the trip see was warming up to it as it came in very useful. Did she run out a buy one when we came home? Na, but i did. People are funny. Lone penguin in Florida.
All the current punditry about the Windows vs Linux on netbooks want to ignore one fact — price point advantage for Linux over the long term.
Regardless of whether W7 has more features or it is what the user base is use to there is the fundamental cost structure to the product. Microsoft was able to sell XP dirt cheap on netbooks because the R&D has long since been paid for by the Win using Corps of the world. So Microsoft could afford to sell it for $12 OEM price. Well Microsoft placed a multibillion dollar bet on Vista that did not pan out. They are now doubling down with W7. But the fact is Microsoft cannot afford to plunk $2Bn down on development then turn around and sell it for $12 OEM for every new OS they crank out.
The cost structure is against them.
Even if Windows 7 manages to win some otherwise potential linux users, Linux does not care. It’ll grow at the same steady rate and it’ll be used for the same reasons.