A recent ComputerWorld article titled “Windows 7: The Linux Killer” has been getting a lot of attention. The article basically argues that Microsoft’s vulnerability to Linux comes entirely from netbooks and that Windows 7 is designed to and will take over the netbook market. On one point I agree, on one point I disagree, and on one point I think we just have to wait and see.

I agree that Windows 7 was probably designed at least partly with the goal of developing a modern version of Windows that can realistically run on netbooks. Without a doubt, there has been some serious focus on performance in Windows 7, most likely as a result of both complaints about Vista and the growing netbook market. It also appears that these efforts have paid off and Windows 7 will probably be much better on netbooks than Vista was.

Where I disagree with the article is in this statement:

The threat to Windows comes entirely from “netbooks”

If that was revised to “the immediate threat to Windows comes entirely from netbooks,” then I would agree.  The thing is that standard desktop Linux is making a lot of progress, too. I could point to Dell’s Linux offerings, but I think the more significant progress is in overall user friendliness. For example, look at Wubi. You can now install Ubuntu without leaving Windows and uninstall it the same way. I could name almost countless examples of small things that make various Linux distributions more user friendly. Support for Windows file systems, clearly named menus, Add/Remove programs, continually improving hardware support, and so on. Whatever you can say about market share and whatever comparisons you want to make, Linux is improving at a rapid pace. This could be Microsoft’s greatest long term threat. A free operating system already very, very usable and quickly improving.

Finally, the article makes the following claim:

The high point for Linux netbook sales will be from now until the launch of Windows 7. After that will come the inevitable decline.

I don’t think it’s so clear cut. First of all, we have to look at costs. Windows costs money, Linux doesn’t. Argue all you want about the details of the training, support, and so on, but the fact remains that Windows has a per-license price and Linux doesn’t. (Unless Microsoft plays some really weird price games, which can always happen.)  Second, Linux can be customized like crazy. This really means two things: First, it is almost guaranteed that it will be possible to make Linux faster, since you can strip away, modify, or replace every piece. Second, the OEM can modify the software they ship, as both Dell and HP have done. In fact, they can even take pretty much complete credit for it . The point is that, despite Windows 7 making huge improvements, there will still be many reasons to use Linux, so it is not at all clear that Windows 7 will suppress Linux on netbooks.

I can’t say I agree with everything, but I think the general idea of the article is right. Windows 7 is, at least partially, targeted at killing Linux, but I don’t think it will work.