Jim Zemlin, the executive director of the Linux Foundation, came out and made a bold prediction that Linux would outship Windows in 2009, as discussed in Desktop Linux and on Zemlin’s blog. Obviously, this is not a safe claim, but it could be more realistic than you might expect.

The argument made is that instant-on OSs, which are almost always Linux-based, will be installed on almost all computers, thus canceling out the Windows OS shipping on the computer. Once all the WIndows installs are canceled out, the Linux netbooks will then push Linux over the top, in terms of most copies shipped.

The conclusion makes a lot more sense after reading the details of the argument, but I am still not completely convinced.

My biggest problem with the conclusion is that I doubt instant-on will be mainstream until at least late 2009, if it catches on. In other words, I doubt that, even if instant-on OSs become highly popular, they will be included in the majority of computers until late 2009 at best. Right now, instant-on OSs are included on some notebook lines and a very few desktops. That is a long way from being ubiquitous, or even common.

Even if the theory came true, what would it mean? Do people really use instant-on OSs as much as they use their main OS? Even if they do, do they have any idea that they are using Linux?

Zemlin’s conclusion is not impossible, nor is it likely, still, even if users were unable to identify it as Linux, it would be a major step forward, since it would indicate that manufacturers believed in Linux, at least for small tasks.

Don’t Forget! Live review of Ubuntu Intrepid Ibex on Saturday November 1st at 1:00 PM Eastern US time.