When I saw the headline “Brazil Appeals OOXML Too! Asks Approval Be Reconsidered” on LXer today (the full article is on Groklaw) and then saw that India had joined the appeal, too, the question in my mind (other than the “I guess when you bypass the process and essentially cheat you don’t win, Microsoft” one) was what is Microsoft thinking right now? Unfortunately, I don’t know and the few who do know what Microsoft is thinking will probably never tell anymore than the PR lines, but, luckily, there may be some clues.

Going back to before even South Africa appealed OOXML’s ISO approval, Microsoft announced that they would be supporting ODF natively in Office. Most of the speculation I saw suggested that the move was made due to pressures from the EU and from governments wanting ODF support for their own reasons. However, with the recent appeals from three countries, I suspect there may be a different reason.

Microsoft must have known from the second reports of foul play around OOXML approval appeared that there would be many who would fight against OOXML approval. Again, I come back to the question “what is Microsoft thinking right now?”

Suppose the people inside Microsoft decided that Microsoft had to seriously worry about OOXML losing ISO approval. What would Microsoft do? First, downplay ISO approval in the press and, second, prepare for a graceful transition if OOXML fails. What does the second part mean, well, since creating a new standard is out of the question short-term, they would have to adopt another ISO approved standard, for example ODF. See where I am going?

Perhaps Microsoft’s adoption of ODF did not, at least completely, come from outside pressure. Perhaps it came from people inside Microsoft worried about a graceful transition to another format if OOXML did not get ISO approval and was unable to catch on without it. And if Microsoft was worried even before any countries actually appealed the approval, they must be worried now. If they are, that might be the best indication of OOXML’s future, which is not looking good.

Of course, this is all speculation and there are many assumptions here, but it is worth keeping in mind that Microsoft may know more about the appeals that are coming in than we do, so it is worth watching their moves to try and predict the future of OOXML. In my opinion, it would be just fine if OOXML died as a standard and Microsoft adopted ODF. Then we get one universal, truly open format that everyone can use. This would help to break up the Microsoft monopoly without destroying the company and it would spark more competition.

If OOXML looses ISO approval, it looks like Microsoft may adopt ODF, and if Microsoft adopts ODF, everyone wins.