News that another school system or government has switched to Linux seems seems to come  very frequently now. The latest appears to be news that 9000 Swiss computers are switching to Ubuntu, according to Duvet Dayz.

This trend, similar to the trend to cheap UMPCs, represents a significant future problem for Microsoft, because students will grow up and be familiar with Linux and presumably use it at home and possibly at work too. In the case of governments switching to Linux a similar thing will presumably occur, except that (hopefully) most of the workers are already grown up.

I said before that this trend is similar to the trend towards cheap Linux UMPCs and that is true, but there is one important difference. Microsoft has seen the hole that Linux UMPCs are creating, but they have not yet shown they have seen the education and governments hole. Even if Microsoft cannot compete with Linux’s advantages, they can use FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) and force to accomplish a lot of things, but not if the don’t pay attention to where they are losing dominance.

The cheap Linux UMPC trend will continue to help Linux, though Microsoft can be expected to resist it. They may or may not win that fight, but they will do damage, through real competition or through FUD and force. The education and government hole, however, is currently being ignored or not seen by Microsoft. This gives it a chance to really take off, just as the Eee PC did before Microsoft started paying attention.